Editorial

The Green vote in Gorton and Denton increased by 10,170 votes from 4,810 in 2024 to 14,980 in 2026.  The Labour vote decreased by 9,191 votes.  In the 2024 general election, the Workers Party had got 3,766 votes yet decided, for local reasons, not to stand in this by-election.  It advised its supporters to vote for the Green Party.

Assuming that the erstwhile Workers Party supporters had voted Green that would have given the Green Party 8,576 votes.  Where did the Green party’s other 6,404 votes come from?

It would seem reasonable to assume that it came mainly from the Labour voters who have been appalled by the performance of the Starmer government.  That would suggest that the Green party got 6,404/9,191 = 70% of the disenchanted Labour vote.

These calculation are somewhat approximate.  For instance, the Lib Dem vote declined by over 700.  Did they switch to the Green party?  That would imply that the Greens may have only got some 60% of the voters who abandoned Labour.

It seems likely that the Greens got between 60% and 70% of the voters who abandoned Labour.  This is interesting, since it suggests that a fair proportion of Labour voters see the Greens as a reasonable alternative to Labour.  

It also suggests that Reform got between 30% and 40% of the voters who abandoned Labour.  Probably in the Denton part of the constituency which seems to have been more old working class.

Observers take an interest in by-elections because they attempt to use them to make predictions about the next general election.  That’s a somewhat foolhardy exercise given that the next general election is over 3 years away and it is very possible that Starmer will not still be the Labour  Party leader.

But, insofar as one would dare to read something into the Gorton and Denton result, it is that the metropolitan elite in the cities could well abandon Labour for the Greens and that many of the more traditional working class voters will switch to Reform.

It is of course of interest to ask would the Greens have won if the Workers Party had put up a candidate.  It’s distinctly possible that Reform would have won.  Certainly the vote would have been a lot closer.  This will leave the Workers Party with a distinct problem in any future general election.  Should it be prepared to split the Labour vote and risk letting Reform win in order to have its political views presented to the electorate?

The Greens and the Workers Party have sufficient views in common for the Workers Party to advise its supporters to vote Green.  But, on perhaps the biggest geopolitical issue of the day, only the Workers Party puts the position that NATO must have primary responsibility for the war in Ukraine.  It is a shame that view was not represented in the by-election.  Perhaps in one by-election it was acceptable that the view was not put.  But in a general election the view must be put.  An understanding of the true nature of the war in Ukraine may be the only thing that prevents the war developing into a more general European war.