British governments, together with their media servants, have been telling us for many years that Russia is an enemy. When the Special Military Operation began in Ukraine in early 2022 it was confidently asserted that the Russians were militarily incompetent and would fail against the Ukrainians. In reality Russia launched a pre-emptive strike against a Nato planned and inspired war that involved Ukrainian troops using NATO military equipment and command and control from a NATO headquarters to overrun the Donbass and Crimea. Over the past three and a half years, as the failure of this NATO operation has become increasingly apparent, the rhetoric has changed and it is now confidently asserted that not only are the Russians a threat to our national security but that ‘we will all be speaking Russian’ if we don’t rearm and remilitarise ourselves along with the member states of the EU. Evidently it can’t both be true that the Russians are militarily incompetent and that they are poised to invade Europe and Britain and force us all to speak Russian. It is also probable that neither of these assertions are true. So what is going on?
The EU, Germany, France and Poland among others have adopted the same rhetoric towards Russia and economic adjustments have been made that will enable increased spending on military equipment and infrastructure. At the same time, steps are being taken to prepare the public and in particular its younger sons and daughters, to adapt to a much closer link with military affairs up to and including involuntarily joining the armed forces of their respective countries. The economic devastation caused by cutting Europe off from cheap energy from Russia is now excused by the assertion of the Russian menace and it is claimed that it will be repaired by the development of a vigorous European arms industry. Britain fully supports these steps, but few have been thinking through the consequences for international relations in Europe.
Europe has for centuries been the site of devastating balance of power wars, that is wars that have been fought to establish or to prevent the emergence of one of Europe’s historically great powers as dominant. At different times these have included: Sweden, Poland, Spain, France, Germany and Britain. The American military occupation of Europe since 1944 has damped down these conflicts and has given the Europeans little reason to fight each other. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 removed some of the glue that held these countries in peaceful relations. The prospective withdrawal of the United States will remove a lot more of that glue. We are now seeing the beginnings of the rearming of the European great powers. In Russia this has already happened as a result of the NATO proxy war against Russia.
The UK finally left the EU in 2021, but it still aspires to play a key role in European affairs. If historical precedent is anything to go by, this will consist in attempting to achieve dominance through shifting alliances with the other great European powers. At the present time, the NATO proxy war in Ukraine serves the very useful purpose, both of using Russia as a lever to claim military leadership in Europe and also to scare the British public into vastly increased arms expenditure and a remilitarisation of British society so that we can avoid having to learn Russian.
A practical result of this activity in Europe will be the possible re-emergence of several militarily powerful states whose interests do not always coincide and between whom there exist centuries of animosity and suspicion. We may now be entering a new European period of great power rivalry. It may be said that the EU will prevent that happening, but the fact remains that certain countries, in particular the UK, Germany and France, all have aspirations to become the militarily and politically dominant powers in Europe. Russia has probably lost all interest in playing a major role in European politics but it is hard for it to disentangle itself given European hostility towards it. This is a state of affairs that the British state and its elites will relish. Fear of being marginalised in Europe led to our exit from the EU, but re-emergence as a resurgent military power with the capacity to form alliances of convenience with whatever European states currently serve our purpose will allow us to play our historical role in European affairs, that is ensuring hegemony as far as possible and preventing the emergence of rivals. Britain’s unearned reputation as a peaceful and pragmatic nation and the deference that many European leaders still owe to it will make this task easier.
Britain is not so clear as to how to manage its re-emergence as a European military power. Our political elite, none of it acting in the interests of the electorate, includes all three of the major political parties in the House of Commons; they see a pressing need to instil a martial spirit in the British population and steps are currently being taken to do this. Already some ‘kite-flying’ about the re-introduction of conscription for Britain’s youth is appearing in the media and from some MPs. If Britain is intent on fighting off Russian forces at Dover and other locations then the demands on military skill will be slightly less than would be required for an expeditionary force in Europe. If, on the other hand, Britain proposes to take part in a European war against Russia, then it will not only need a large conscript army but also one that is highly competent in large unit manoeuvring and combined arms combat. Bear in mind that the Russians have deep experience in such matters through years of successful combat in Ukraine and on their own territory. It is hardly likely that a British conscript army could take on such a force, even in conjunction with German, French and Polish armies, between whom co-ordination and even co-operation arrangements will be difficult, even after a couple of years of training exercises. A British expeditionary force would be better suited to threatening or fighting our traditional enemies, the French and/or the Germans than it would taking on the Russians. Capability is a clue to intent.
Even a brief discussion of the supposed Russian menace to Europe and the UK shows how nonsensical this proposition is. There is no evidence for predatory Russian intentions against Europe, let alone against the UK. The Europeans are in this to cover their tracks for the disastrous proxy NATO war against Russia which will soon end in abject defeat. The EU and national elites are anxious to deflect the blame for their own misjudgements in Ukraine and to avoid being turned out of office by a rightly angry electorate. Britain is playing its own game in addition to deflecting blame, by making a bid to become a European military power once again. Britons should resist this spurious warmongering and oppose increased military expenditure and any hint of a return to conscription. See the Workers’ Party initiative opposing this:
Britain needs armed forces that can defend its borders against real threats. It does not need to indulge either in imperial adventures nor in European Balance of Power politics, let alone a war on Russia.
Labour Affairs 