Notes on the News

By Gwydion M. Williams

Putin’s Nuclear Gamble

Threaten carefully

In China, Bears Shit in the Woods!

Must We Be Eyeless In Gaza?

How to Reverse Progress and Be Very Baffled

Snippets

Trump Abandoning Taiwan?

Conciliation Within China

Reaching across the Pacific

India Neglects Its Poor

Putin’s Nuclear Gamble

Russians have a history of losing many battles, but winning wars because they don’t give up.

The USA beyond its home territory has a history of walking away when the going gets tough.

The USA lost in Vietnam because their allies were mostly dishonest or incompetent. Likewise in Afghanistan. And in Iraq, the only useful allies have their own diverse agendas.

In each case, they were up against enemies who preferred death to defeat.

And their carefully plotted Ukraine War is coming apart for much the same reasons.

In Ukraine, the ‘heroes’ of the 2004 Orange Revolution lost the election that came after. It had all along been a major split in a society with a shaky sense of identity. In 2004 after the election was re-run after allegations of fraud, Viktor Yushchenko got 51.99% and Viktor Yanukovych got 44.20%.^[1]

By 2010 Yushchenko was discredited, getting only 5.5% in his bid for a second term.^[2] Yanukovych got 35.92 % in the first round, but when it was a choice between him and pro-US oligarch Yulia Tymoshenko, he got 49.55. Since another 4.42 were ‘against all’, this returned him to power. And he tried to be a bridge between Russia and the European Union[CW1] .

Exactly what the Dollar Imperialists of the USA wanted to avoid. Since Putin had asserted Russian interests, they were determined to destroy him. But the pro-Western Yabloko had been getting less than 5% of the votes since 2003, and had no seats in Russia’s national parliament.^[3] They needed some other method to weaken him.

I’m sure it irritated the US manipulators to have to do the same job again. Probably they despised their allies for being so weak and useless. But they had an ace up their sleeves.

Or rather a movement that had begun and ended the Nazi invasion as willing allies of Hitler, even though they fought him between times.

At the end of World War Two, the USA found refuges for many who had served the Nazi war machine. Some were wanted for war crimes, mostly committed against Jews, but Ukrainian right-wingers had also massacred Poles. Many of these went to Canada: much safer than the USA, where Jews were more influential and judges more likely to assert themselves.

Returned from exiles, such Ukrainians could present themselves as Real Patriots. Win over discontented youths in the economic decline that New Right policies had inflicted on both Russia and Ukraine. Putin had of course turned Russia round when he finally realised that New Right policies were poison. But no such option existed in Ukraine, which kept discarding Presidents at the end of each term in office.

In 2014, widespread protests had outright Nazis as the hard core. Yanukovych offered a new election, but instead the parliament was rushed into declaring him deposed, which broke their own constitution.^[4] They polarised the whole society:

“Having overturned a sensible compromise that had been reached on the 21st, parliament then repealed a 2012 law that gave official status to languages other than Ukrainian in regions where at least 10% spoke it. Rights for minority languages is in line with European norms, but this was ignored.”^[5]

Facts like that have been covered up. One Facebook post of mine got removed as ‘hate speech’ when I mentioned Kiev’s disputes with a Hungarian minority in its west. But the big reaction was in places where Russian was widely spoken. And especially in Crimea, which had been part of Russia until transferred by Russified-Ukrainian Khrushchev. He himself was an example of the free mixing: born in Kursk near Ukraine and living from age 14 in the Donbass, the eastern region that had to be persuaded by Lenin to be counted as part of Ukraine rather than Russia.

What they can’t have seen is that almost all Russians would feel the need to save ethnic Russians who were at risk of Ethnic Cleansing in the new Nazi-loving Ukraine.

They’re not fighting Putin; they are fighting Russia.

Threaten carefully

Putin used a new type of missile – a ballistic missile that carries smaller hypersonic missiles. Russia and China are reported to be way ahead in this technology.^[6]

And even if the USA can match it, it does make their missile defence systems useless. Ballistic missiles are fast but predictable. Hypersonic missiles change course and are far harder to intercept.

It is notable that the USA and other Western powers pulled their embassies out of Kiev just ahead of the missile, even though it struck somewhere else.

Russia led by Putin can hit anything in Europe. The missile he used could not hit the USA, and he’s acting on the assumption that the USA is not going to start a nuclear war over anything that happens in Europe.

It is wrong to assume that any use of nuclear weapons means an all-out holocaust. This might happen between the USA and Russia. There would be big gains in launching a First Strike, and a balancing cost in delay. But the nuclear weapons of China, France, and Britain could not possibly manage a First Strike, except possibly against one of the minor nuclear powers. But even a few city-killing missiles are thought to keep those countries safe.

Two of the lesser nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, had a small war in 1999.^[7] Both had nuclear weapons, but I said at the time it was unlikely to expand. And indeed, Pakistan accepted a small defeat.

As things are, Russia responded to Kiev being given extra missiles. And Putin got the law amended to allow him to use limited nuclear strikes. Maybe an atom bomb on one of Kiev’s military bases. Or even a conventional hypersonic strike on a military base in Poland or even Germany.

Not something that the USA would be likely to start a global war over. Few of the voters are hugely concerned with anything that happens in Europe. Politicians would probably hesitate.

Of course it can’t be assumed they will, either. But Putin takes risks, and Russians are pleased to be recovering from many years of national humiliation.

In the European Union, there are increasing signs that European leaders want to bail out.

In China, Bears Shit in the Woods!

“China loses third of its billionaires as economy falters”

That’s from the Financial Times. Written to give hard facts to working business people. So it disapproves of a loss of status by the rich, but also has to report what’s really going on.

If an economy can lose some billionaires and flourish, the ultra-rich will see it as a threat. This has been happening much more definitely since President Xi became leader. And the pressure keeps increasing:

“Chinese authorities are demanding wealthy individuals and companies double-check their taxes for unpaid liabilities in a move that threatens to further dent investor confidence in the world’s second-largest economy.

“Tax officials in recent months have asked wealthy individuals and companies to carry out ‘self-inspections’ of their tax payments and cough up any deficiencies, as local governments hunt for revenue to refill coffers depleted by a property slump.”^[8]

And China is doing better than Western economies, where the rich can legally avoid most taxes.

If this year’s predictions of disasters for China are as false as those for the last 10 or 15 years, then we can cite them as a proof that the rich are not the indispensable wealth-creators they claim.

Note how media owned by the rich hypes any bad news, ignoring similar or worse things that happen elsewhere.

But why don’t most of the left wish to celebrate China’s success?

It all goes back to the chaos caused by Khrushchev suddenly deciding to criminalize Stalin and declare himself direct heir of Lenin. And nearly starting a world war, so he was dumped. Brezhnev then appointed himself the actual direct heir of Lenin, but forbade serious thought about how this had happened. It corroded the trust that a Leninist system vitally needs. And he suppressed Czechoslovakia, at a time when many there were sincere believers in socialism. When they wanted to do reforms similar to those Deng was to make in China.^[9]

The problem seems to be that China will not renounce either Mao or Stalin, which most of the Western left sees as a sign of evil.

Lenin created the authoritarian system that Stalin operated. And Trotsky was very content for as long as he was ‘Underboss’ and could hope to be Lenin’s heir. Initially not chosen, he might have waited and hoped to win back popularity. That was what Mao did when the Central Committee moved in on his Liberated Area, and in fact wrecked it. And Chinese Leninism has always been much healthier because of the acceptance that the people chosen by the Party Congress had a right to rule until another Congress decided otherwise. But Trotsky claimed a right to overthrow the system, and had enough supporters and possible allies for the leaders to see purges as unavoidable.

When the initial Collective Leadership eroded to the dominance of Stalin, he got real success in a tough situation. The revolution turned into real achievements through the work of imperfect humans.

Deng, who had lived through it all, accepted that both Stalin and Mao had won victory when this was far from certain. He saw criticism of Stalin as foolish, even asking “What good has Khrushchev ever done?”^[10]

Meantime much of the left repudiate all the winners and express vast admiration for many of the losers. And are incredibly surprised when this does not bring success.

Must We Be Eyeless In Gaza?

During the Vietnam War, a very clever British-born journalist called Alistair Cooke imagined that people had seen the horrific trenches of World War One, in the same way that Vietnam was being reported. Feelings would have been vastly different.

And a pointless war would have stopped, I’d have thought. But Cooke was always conventionally pro-American, living there till he died very old in 2004.

Only in the USA!

But many of his shrewd remarks stayed with me. Live television does give horrible events a vivid reality. That’s why later wars kept journalists under control. ‘Embedding’ them, so that they and probably their viewers identified with the fighting force they’d been placed with.

Not possible in the Land of Canaan, to use a neutral term. I have always tried to take a balanced view between two typical human combines that had unfortunately collided.^[11] If asked about Israel’s right to exist, I’ll say ‘on the territory they were allocated by the UN in 1948, certainly’. Or rather more, realistically. But trying to violently displace the Palestinians from your ideal vision of Israel was going to repel most of the world.

For a long time, there was a reasonable pretence that this was not the intention. But then politicians seeking to damage Hard Left rivals decided to accept the crazy notion that any criticism of an Israeli government would be defined as anti-Semitism.

The worse gift since the Trojan Horse, only I can’t think it was planned maliciously.

Most Israelis have eagerly drunk from the poison chalice. Eagerly accepted that whatever they wanted to do would be defined as virtuous. So large numbers of dead children would be ignored or understood by all right-thinking people.

Some football fans felt they had a right to do the same overseas:

“Thursday’s [France-Israel football] match was played in front of scant crowds and heavy security a week after violence in Amsterdam between pro-Palestinian demonstrators and visiting Israeli fans…

“According to Reuters news agency, some 100 Israel fans defied travel warnings from their government and sat in a corner of the 80,000-capacity stadium, which was barely a fifth full…

“Politicians across Europe decried a ‘return of antisemitism’ after Israeli fans were chased through the streets of Amsterdam.

“Maccabi fans were themselves involved in vandalism, tearing down a Palestinian flag, attacking a taxi and chanting anti-Arab slogans, according to city authorities. They were then targeted by ‘small groups of rioters… on foot, by scooter or car’, the city said in a 12-page report.”^[12]

If young men under pressure behave like baboons, it is regrettable, but not at all unexpected. And the job of the mature men should be to control them.

Sadly lacking nowadays

How to Reverse Progress and Be Very Baffled

“America’s decades-long progress towards racial and sexual tolerance and equality has been a gradual shift, led by progressives with the centre and right quickly following.

“The pivots of the past decade, by contrast, have been abrupt and are leaving the majority behind. They are better characterised not as moves towards greater tolerance and equality but as shifts in rhetoric or proposed solutions for addressing disparities, where there is plenty of room for disagreement without bigotry.

“Many of these pivots originated with the activists and non-profit staffers that surround the Democratic party. In an invaluable piece of research carried out in 2021 … these ‘political elites’ or tastemakers hold views often well to the left of the average voter — and even the average Democratic voter — on cultural issues…

“While 73 per cent of white progressive Democrats favour cutting the size and scope of police forces, only 37 per cent of Black Americans agree. A new study … found that the use of the gender-neutral term ‘Latinx” used by some progressives was not only deeply unpopular with many Hispanic Americans but may have actively pushed some towards Trump…

“Survey data shows that in every election from 1948 to 2012, American voters’ image of the Democrats was as the party that stood up for the working class and the poor. In 2016 that flipped. Now it is seen primarily as the party of minority advocacy…

“Whether or not progressives are ready to accept it, the evidence all points in one direction. America’s moderate voters have not deserted the Democrats; the party has pushed them away.”^[13]

It’s part of a long liberal tradition of thinking they know best and imposing it on others. But now being done with fervour rather than realism:

“Donald Trump’s victory in the race for the White House appears to reflect a sweeping turn to the populist right, across all demographics. But the US is just another country where the protest vote — not necessarily on the right or left — has become the new majority…

“This year, in the 50 most populous democracies, incumbents have won 14 per cent of the elections in developed countries, compared with 73 per cent in developing countries. Approval ratings show the same stark gap; leaders are deeply unpopular on average in the developed world but are still popular in the developing world. The wave is not global, it is a revolt against long-term rot in post-capitalist economies, of which America is the leading example.”^[14]

People know that they are being neglected:

“Paul Spehar, 62, a maintenance technician based in Daytona Beach, Florida, has seen reports that the economy is doing well but has only seen his savings chip away. His car insurance tripled over the last three years, and he had to take on $2,000 in debt to pay for the copay of a recent surgery. When Spehar retires, he will have to rely solely on Social Security.

“‘The system doesn’t work for people like me,’ Spehar said.

“It’s a common sentiment. In a Harris Poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian in September, nearly 50% of Americans believed that the country is experiencing a recession. Over 60% believed that inflation is increasing, and 50% believed that unemployment is increasing too. Even those who may know what the economists are saying don’t feel great: 73% said it’s hard to feel good about any positive economic news when they feel financially squeezed each month.”

Harris ignored Bernie Saunders’ advice to show concern for working class interest. Claims of economic brilliance were rightly rejected. Success for financiers need not benefit ordinary people, and increasingly does not.

Sn ippets

Trump Abandoning Taiwan?

“Anger in Taiwan over reports SpaceX asked suppliers to move abroad

Taipei says it is paying close attention to reported request by Elon Musk’s firm”^[15]

Will Trump back away from the Dollar Crusade of the Democrats. Which was also enthused over by some Republicans, but not then obviously failing and a waste of money.

Taiwan’s troubles began when the pro-independence government encouraged Hong Kong protestors and made various mostly-symbolic gestures towards being independent.

This might not suit Musk or Trump. And them shifting would probably lead to Taiwan being more modest.

China could blockade and ruin it, but probably would prefer not to.

Conciliation Within China

Meantime the Guardian reports a boost being given to Xi’s father:

“Chinese state television lionises Xi Jinping’s father in 39-part serialised drama”^[16]

They don’t see a possible relationship to what his son now faces.

Xi Senior led a liberated area that Mao took over and made stronger at the end of the Long March. And the wider region remained his concern:

« Xi directed the political work of the Northwest Political and Military Affairs Bureau, which was tasked with bringing Communist governance to the newly captured areas of the Northwest. In this capacity, Xi was known for his moderate policies and the use of non-military means to pacify rebellious areas…

«In July 1951, following the Communists’ defeat of the Ma Clique armies in Qinghai, remnants of the Muslim warlords incited rebellion among Tibetan tribesmen.»

I’m sure President Xi wants to conciliate Taiwan, not conquer it.

Taiwanese would be wise to note the damage the Dollar Crusade has done elsewhere. Get the best deal they can.

Reaching across the Pacific

“China megaport opens up Latin America as wary US looks on…

«South American countries such as Peru, Chile and Colombia would be vulnerable to pressure because of the bilateral free trade agreements they have with the US, which Trump could seek to renegotiate or even tear up.”^[17]

China is a big market, and growing. A more sensible line-up. And boosted if Trump makes good his promise of drastic tariffs.

India Neglects Its Poor

“The missing puzzle piece in India’s child stunting crisis

“Decades of caste discrimination have contributed to India having higher levels of child stunting rates than across Sub-Saharan Africa, new research has revealed.

“The two regions together are home to 44% of the world’s under-five population but account for about 70% of stunted children globally – a key indicator of malnutrition.

“But, while both have made significant strides in recent years, India’s rate stands at 35.7%, external, with the average across Sub-Saharan Africa’s 49 countries at 33.6%.

“A child is considered stunted when they fall short of the expected height for their age – a clear sign of critical nutritional gaps.”^[18]

Old newsnotes at the magazine websites. I also write regular blogs – https://www.quora.com/q/mrgwydionmwilliams

^[1] https://mrgwydionmwilliams.quora.com/Ukraine-Punished-For-Rejecting-US-Values-in-2010

^[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Ukrainian_presidential_election#Results

^[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yabloko#Election_results

^[4] https://labouraffairsmagazine.com/past-issues/2015-07-magazine/2015-07-ukraine-illegally-removed-its-elected-president/

^[5] https://labouraffairsmagazine.com/m-articles-by-topic/m99-topic-menus-from-long-revolution-website/46-globalisation/ukraine-kievs-five-day-war-machine/

^[6] https://english.almayadeen.net/news/technology/expert-says-us–nato-cannot-develop-hypersonic-weapons-for-2

^[7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War

^[8] https://www.ft.com/content/1570747c-313d-49e9-afb0-2567e003438e – pay site

^[9] https://labouraffairsmagazine.com/very-old-issues-images/magazine-001-to-010/magazine-007-july-1988-2/the-1968-invasion-of-czechoslovakia-doomed-the-soviet-union/

^[10] https://redsails.org/deng-and-fallaci/